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The process for a Level One Analysis and the fives steps involved is illustrated below.

Step A uses tools and methods to both and dimension the economic and operational aspects of the MEC. The solution strategy conceptualized during this step is done so using a process known in the private sector as “materialization”.  Materialization is an early development exercise that seeks to answer such questions as “if we were to build a material solution that met these prioritized MECs, what would it look like?  What technical elements would be involved?” The answer to these questions becomes the solution opportunity space in which material alternatives and strategies are to be evaluated.

At the end of this step the solution opportunity space is defined in both financial and operational terms.  This creates the evaluation and decision context in which potential system and process solutions are to be evaluated further in the process.

During Step B, existing Army methods and systems are compared against the prioritized economic and operational requirements within the solution opportunity space.  The gaps that emerge from this assessment provide guidance for the technology search and assessment phase (Level One, Step C).  Additionally, any military-specific language and concepts are translated into their commercial equivalents so that the search can be widened to include non-traditional commercial solutions that may be able to address all or a portion of the prioritized requirements.

In Step C, the analytical team searches for solutions to the prioritized requirements in both the traditional defense supply chain and in the commercial supply chain.  This search process employs both manual and automated open source search tools and methods. In many cases the personal network of the analyst plays an important role in identifying state of the art innovation.  The price and availability of the technology elements within a timeframe of the present through five years out will depend on factors including but not limited to the commercial TRL of the technology element, market factors such as the adoption of the technology element in products or services, technical trends, legal and regulatory factors that may shape the market place (defense or commercial), and other such factors.1 

The assessment of potential suppliers includes not only their solution’s performance against the prioritized MEC defined in step A but also an assessment of the supplier’s business including matters such as financial stability, support services, business model, and other factors that will have a bearing on the final solution the Army may procure.

Step D integrates the findings of technology, search, and assessment activities of the previous step with the solution opportunity space defined in Step A. During Step A, the materialization process resulted in certain potential means by which a solution(s) might be developed to realize the MEC and achieve the KPPs.  The data gathered in Step C enables the analytical team and client to begin to answer this critical question: how much of the required functionality of the materialized “solution” crafted in Step A can be developed using commercial technology elements? The important factor to consider is whether the potential commercial technology elements – if included as elements or the basis of the materialized solution – would offer compelling cost and/or schedule advantages.

In the final step of the Level One analysis, Step E, the analytical team and client work to identify all of the possible statutory and policy issues along with service-specific practices which will have a significant bearing on the development of proposed materiel solution.  For instance, the technology search and assessment process may identify the best source of a commercial technical element as being one from a company located in a country outside of the ABCA2 nations.  Should this preclude this supplier from consideration? Perhaps a strategic US technology supplier was to be acquired by a hedge fund.  Currently, US securities laws do not require hedge funds to disclose the identify of their investors but US defense regulations require a disclosure of foreign ownership by defense suppliers providing certain strategic systems.   In this situation, a part of the deliverable of Step E would be to provide suggested courses of action to address this potential statutory and policy conundrum.

If after Steps A through E the analysis shows that there is no compelling financial or schedule case, then the commercial-centric design approach does not have merit in this case and the analytical process is complete.  However, if a compelling case for a reduced cost and/or rapid development path that addresses the prioritized MEC defined in the solution opportunity space, then one or more materiel alternatives can now be considered.  Understanding the details of the cost and schedule advantages as well as the acquisition and/or transition issues are the goals of the Level Two analysis.



1Few markets have the dynamism, the global impact, and the financial complexity of high technology.  This dynamism presents serious challenges to designers everywhere.  They are confronted with what Alvin Toffler first identified nearly forty years ago: future shock.  The “cycle time of innovation,” the “change rate,” the “rate of obsolescence”, and the diminished manufacturing sources problem (DMS) challenge designers of high tech solutions to plan for these changes as a normal part of their product and systems strategies.  High technology development has emerged as one of the “high grounds” of developed economies. Nations seeking to improve their standard of living often target high technology as a market to enter and to find niches to dominate (with the attendant higher profit margins).  Because “capital knows no flag,” investment capital pursues those investment opportunities wherever there appears to be an opportunity to obtain an above average return on that investment.  This capital fluidity has helped stimulate the growth of innovation centers in countries such as Taiwan, China, and India.  In fact, a single company in Taiwan manufactures the majority of semiconductors used in the manufacturing of personal computers: the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC).  This intersection of high speed innovation, globalization, and readily available and fluid investment capital presents serious challenges to any organization – corporate or government – that desires to be on the leading edge of a high technology sector.

 

2America, Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand

 

 

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